How will the latest Trump tariffs affect the UK?

Despite the government's hopes, the UK has not, successful the end, been exempted from President Trump's 25% alloy and aluminium tariffs.

Prime Minister Keir Starmer has said the UK volition "keep each options connected the table", but has not announced contiguous retaliation.

BBC Verify looks astatine however large the interaction connected the UK could beryllium and what mightiness hap next.

The worth of the UK's earthy alloy and aluminium exports to the US successful 2024 was astir £470m.

But it's important to enactment that these latest US tariffs - taxes connected imports - besides screen products made with alloy and aluminium, which covers everything from gym equipment, to furniture, to machinery.

It's estimated by the Global Trade Alert deliberation tank that the UK's exports of these products to the US successful 2024 was astir £2.2bn.

So the full yearly worth of UK exports affected would beryllium astir £2.7bn.

For context, the UK exported astir £58bn of goods to the US connected an yearly ground successful 2024 - truthful the stock of goods deed by these caller Trump tariffs represents conscionable nether 5%.

The UK hopes to reason a escaped commercialized woody with the Trump administration, which could mean these tariffs being removed.

But we person nary mode of knowing if - oregon however soon - specified an statement could beryllium concluded.

Trump has besides threatened to enforce reciprocal tariffs connected each the United States' trading partners, including the UK, from adjacent month.

These are taxes connected imports to the US which are acceptable astatine a akin complaint to taxes different countries enactment connected goods they import from the US.

And the White House has said that, successful deciding what level to acceptable them, it volition instrumentality into relationship countries' Value Added Tax rates.

The US authorities regards VAT arsenic a taxation that discriminates against US imports - adjacent though it applies arsenic to imports and domestically-produced goods.

The UK has a 20% modular VAT rate, which could perchance mean the UK being deed by a important reciprocal tariff from the US.

While the UK is not yet retaliating, the European Union has already confirmed it plans to enforce tariffs connected 26bn euros (£22bn) a twelvemonth worthy of goods imported from America.

And the EU is targeting US goods including Bourbon whiskey, jeans and Harley-Davidson motorcycles, which are considered to beryllium politically delicate successful America due to the fact that of their iconic presumption and due to the fact that of which US states immoderate of them are produced in.

Notwithstanding the anticipation for a escaped commercialized deal, successful the aftermath of immoderate reciprocal tariffs imposed by the US, which are perceived to beryllium unfair and punitive, the UK authorities could find itself nether increasing unit to retaliate successful a akin mode to the EU.

The US President has a agelong - and often shifting - database of justifications for imposing these import taxes.

One is that helium claims to privation to reconstruct fairness to America's trading relations with the remainder of the world.

Trump complains that immoderate different countries person higher tariffs connected the goods they import from the US, than the different mode round.

The US had an average outer tariff of 3.3% successful 2023.

That was somewhat little than the UK's mean tariff of 3.8%.

It was besides beneath the European Union's mean tariff of 5% and China's mean tariff of 7.5%.

However, America's mean tariff was considerably little than those of immoderate of its different trading partners specified arsenic India (17%) and South Korea (13.4%).

Broadly speaking, it is morganatic for Trump to constituent retired that immoderate countries person a higher mean tariff connected imports than America does.

Another justification for tariffs from the president is raising much taxation gross for the US government. At 1 signifier during the statesmanlike predetermination run successful 2024, he suggested that tariff revenue could wholly regenerate the national income tax.

This is not lone implausible fixed the $3 trillion a twelvemonth worth of US imports and the $2 trillion a twelvemonth raised by income taxation - but it needs to beryllium seen successful the discourse of the information that tariffs would propulsion up US user prices.

Trump besides wants to enactment unit connected different countries to alteration immoderate of their policies. This has been the explicit rationale for US tariffs connected Canada and Mexico, with the White House saying it wants to unit those countries to stamp retired cross-border Fentanyl smuggling.

Another cardinal extremity articulated by the president is wanting to promote multinational manufacturing companies to put and nutrient much successful America to make home jobs.

Some of these justifications are inconsistent.

Tariffs cannot beryllium a some a large imperishable taxation gross raiser arsenic good arsenic a mode to bring manufacturing backmost to America connected a ample standard arsenic the second implies imports - and truthful tariff revenues - slumping.

Moreover, the immense bulk of economists are besides highly sceptical astir the likelihood of tariffs achieving galore of these goals.